Prepare for a Snowy Winter
Are you preparing for what the weather prophets say will be a cold and snowy winter? The price of being caught unprepared is usually greater than the cost of preparing. By being equipped we can satisfy customers and seize opportunities to grow our business. Although it’s difficult to predict precisely what the weather will do even next week, we still receive forecasts that help us plan for the season ahead. Let’s consider what respected sources are saying about the coming winter.
The U.S. National Weather Service foretells a mixture of temperatures and conditions. Using a trends-based method of prediction, it forecasts normal temperatures for the U.S. Midwest, and an equal chance of above normal, normal, or below normal temperatures for most of the Northeast. This forecast leaves wide open the chance of the Northeast and Midwest getting the same temperatures as last year or colder. And in a report from The National Center for Atmospheric Research, scientist Gerald Meehl wrote, “The models show most areas around the world will experience more intense precipitation for a given storm during this century." This could lead to more snow storms if the National Weather Service’s prediction of “normal or below normal temperatures” comes true.
 The Farmers’ Almanac, published since 1818, predicts above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February. It also forecasts above normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will likely have an unusually wet or snowy February. The almanac claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 per cent for its forecasts. It credits its forecasts to the prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets, and the tidal action of the moon. The almanac was correct in predicting last winter’s surprising snowfall around the Northeast and the Great Lakes. For these reasons, people are heeding its advice this year.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, published since 1792 in New Hampshire, forecasts in line with its competitor. It says we’ll experience “a colder than normal winter with a deep freeze” to arrive in December. Editor Janis Stillman highlights bold predictions for this year, which can be seen in an interview on the company’s Web site. She predicts, “Heavy snow, probably east of the Mississippi,” and “the heaviest snow will be in southern New England.” She also briefly explains how the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2009 reached its forecast. “On a long term basis our study of solar activity suggests that we’re going into a gradual cooling period that could last decades. On a long term basis, we’re suggesting that we could have (really) extreme cold conditions. There has been a measurable decrease in temperature globally from 2007 to 2008 already,” she says.
What should contractors and property managers do? Since The Farmers’ Almanac accurately predicted last year’s large snowfall around the Great Lakes and Northeast, and given the high accuracy rate of both almanacs, many companies are preparing for another snowy season by putting the right equipment and people in place now. Comparing risk versus reward, they reason that playing wait-and-see and hoping the almanacs are wrong could be a costly mistake. This reminds me of Robert Redford’s line from the movie Spy Game, “When did Noah build the ark Gladys? Before the rain, before the rain.” Why take unnecessary risks by playing the wait-and-see game? Adding it all up, there are strong reasons to prepare for snow now.
by Isaac Paonessa
“NOAA’s National Weather Service”
September 30, 2008
CNet.com
Jerry Harkavy, The Associated Press, August 25, 2008 at 1:40 PM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/ September 30, 2008
“The Original Farmer’s Almanac” since 1792
September 30, 2008
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